[box type="shadow" class="" width="" background=#000000]The African Risk Capacity monitors tropical cyclone activity in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) and relies on Africa RiskView, a disaster risk modelling platform that uses satellite-based and other geo-information to forecast wind speed and storm surge height and estimate population affected and economic loss. These modelled losses are the underlying basis of the insurance policies issued by the ARC Insurance Company Limited, the financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which pools risk across the continent.[/box]

Name	Event Number	Naming Date	Current Position	Current Wind Speed
BERGUITTA	06	13/01/18	--18.2S 61.1E	160 km/h

[tabs type="horizontal"] [tabs_head] [tab_title] Forecasts [/tab_title] [tab_title] Population Affected [/tab_title] [/tabs_head] [tab] The following maps shows the actual and forecast (dotted line) cyclone track, as well as the forecast peak wind speed at the time of reporting (see map title): The following map shows the forecast peak surge depth at the time of reporting: NB: It is important to note that these maps are based on forecasts, which will be updated as soon as the next update on the cyclone track is released. [/tab] [tab]

Based on the forecasts presented under the previous tabs, Africa RiskView calculates the potential number of people affected by the tropical cyclone. The table below shows the number of people affected (by different categories of wind speed). It is important to note that these are forecast-based and thus subject to change as soon as the next update on the cyclone track is released:

Location / Category

Population affected

MAURITIUS BLACK RIVER - Weak Tropical Storm 67,471 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 67,471 100.0% - Category 1 (74-95mph) 67,471 100.0% - Category 2 (95-110mph) 2,301 3.4% FLACQ - Weak Tropical Storm 139,348 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 139,348 100.0% - Category 1 (74-95mph) 139,348 100.0% GRAND PORT - Weak Tropical Storm 118,023 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 118,023 100.0% - Category 1 (74-95mph) 118,023 100.0% - Category 2 (95-110mph) 11,892 10.1% MOKA - Weak Tropical Storm 84,053 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 84,053 100.0% - Category 1 (74-95mph) 84,053 100.0% PAMPLEMOUSSES - Weak Tropical Storm 136,140 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 136,140 100.0% - Category 1 (74-95mph) 136,140 100.0% PLAINES WILHEMS - Weak Tropical Storm 398,875 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 398,875 100.0% - Category 1 (74-95mph) 398,875 100.0% PORT LOUIS - Weak Tropical Storm 142,382 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 142,382 100.0% - Category 1 (74-95mph) 142,382 100.0% RIVIERE DU REMPART - Weak Tropical Storm 110,081 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 110,081 100.0% - Category 1 (74-95mph) 110,081 100.0% RODRIGUES - Weak Tropical Storm 39,590 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 39,590 100.0% SAVANNE - Weak Tropical Storm 73,892 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 73,892 100.0% - Category 1 (74-95mph) 73,892 100.0% - Category 2 (95-110mph) 43,485 58.8%

Location / Category	Population affected
REUNION REUNION - Weak Tropical Storm 830,405 100.0% - Strong Tropical Storm 830,405 100.0% - Category 1 (74-95mph) 741,180 89.3% - Category 2 (95-110mph) 68,321 8.2% - Category 3 (111-129mph) 24,202 2.9%

[/tab] [/tabs]